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La Liga This Weekend: Matchday 38 Permutations, Schedule & Predictions
May 23, 2026 · 11 min read

La Liga This Weekend: Matchday 38 Permutations, Schedule & Predictions

La Liga this weekend reaches an epic conclusion! Discover the Matchday 38 schedule, relegation math, European race permutations, and expert predictions.

May 23, 2026 · 11 min read
La LigaSpanish FootballMatchday 38

The curtain is about to fall on another spectacular season of Spanish top-flight football, and the drama is reaching a fever pitch. While FC Barcelona has already wrapped up the title—officially securing their second consecutive championship with three matches to spare following a commanding 2-0 El Clásico win over Real Madrid on May 10—there is still an immense amount of pride, millions in prize money, European qualification, and top-flight survival on the line in La Liga this weekend. Matchday 38 of the 2025/26 season concludes with exactly half of the 20 clubs in the league having something critical left to play for, making La Liga this week one of the most compelling sporting spectacles of the year.

Unlike typical matchweeks where fixtures are spread out over three or four days, the Spanish football federation (LALIGA EA SPORTS) mandates that all matches involving teams with shared competitive objectives kick off simultaneously. This means we have a jam-packed La Liga Saturday schedule featuring nine high-stakes fixtures playing at the exact same time, followed by a standalone, block-buster La Liga Sunday showdown that will decide the final podium position in the league table. Whether you are tracking the intense relegation scrap, the multi-team scramble for Europa League and Conference League slots, or just want to see if Real Madrid can close out their season with a statement win, this is your ultimate comprehensive guide to the final La Liga week of the campaign.


The Battle for Third: Villarreal vs. Atlético de Madrid on La Liga Sunday

While Barcelona and Real Madrid have locked down first and second place respectively, the fight for third is the headline act for La Liga Sunday. Villarreal CF and Atlético de Madrid head into the final matchday level on 69 points each. They will go head-to-head at the Estadio de la Cerámica in a winner-takes-all clash that is effectively a third-place playoff.

In La Liga, the primary tiebreaker is head-to-head record rather than overall goal difference. Because Diego Simeone’s Atlético Madrid secured a hard-fought 2-0 victory over Villarreal at the Metropolitano back in September, they hold the upper hand in the tiebreaker. This means a draw on Sunday will be enough for Atleti to secure third place. For Villarreal, the mandate is clear: nothing short of a victory will do.

Finishing third is not just about bragging rights; it carries significant financial rewards and structural advantages for the upcoming season, including seeding benefits for domestic and continental cup draws. Villarreal has enjoyed a resurgent campaign under Marcelino, but their form has wobbled at the worst possible moment, taking only one point from their last three games. Meanwhile, Atlético Madrid, renowned for their defensive resilience and tactical structure, will look to manage the tempo and exploit Villarreal on the counter. Expect a high-octane tactical chess match that will provide a fitting finale to this final La Liga week.


The European Scramble: Five Teams, Two Spots on La Liga Saturday

The race for European qualification in Spain is incredibly tight this season. With Real Sociedad already securing a UEFA Europa League spot as Copa del Rey winners and Real Betis locking down fifth place, the remaining tickets to Europe are highly contested. Celta Vigo (51 points), Getafe (48 points), Rayo Vallecano (47 points), Valencia CF (46 points), and RCD Espanyol (45 points) are all in the mix heading into La Liga Saturday.

Here is a breakdown of what each club needs on this final matchday:

  • Celta Vigo (51 pts): Currently sitting in 6th place, Celta has guaranteed European football next season. However, they want to hold onto 6th to secure direct entry into the Europa League rather than dropping to the Conference League. A win or draw against Sevilla at Balaídos will get the job done. If they lose and Getafe wins, then they will slide into the UEFA Conference League.
  • Getafe (48 pts): In 7th place, Pepe Bordalás’s side currently holds the UEFA Conference League play-off spot. A win at home against Osasuna guarantees Getafe a place in Europe next year, marking their first return to continental football since 2019/20.
  • Rayo Vallecano (47 pts): Rayo is in a unique and fascinating position. They face Alavés on Saturday needing a win, but they also have one eye on next Wednesday’s UEFA Conference League final against Crystal Palace. If Rayo wins that European trophy, they qualify for the Europa League anyway. If they finish 7th in the league and win the European final, Spain could see an extra team in Europe next year!
  • Valencia CF (46 pts): Ruben Baraja’s young squad faces a massive mountain to climb. They must beat the newly crowned champions Barcelona at Mestalla and hope that Getafe and Rayo Vallecano both drop points.
  • RCD Espanyol (45 pts): A long-shot candidate, the Catalan club must beat Real Sociedad and hope for a highly specific combination of losses from the teams above them to sneak into seventh.

This complex web of permutations will play out simultaneously, with stadium announcers and fans constantly checking live score updates as goals fly in across the country.


The Relegation Drama: Five Teams Fighting to Avoid the Drop

While European spots are glamorous, the real heart-stopping action of La Liga this weekend is at the bottom of the table. Real Oviedo is already mathematically relegated to the Segunda División after a tough campaign, but two other relegation spots must be decided. Five clubs are hovering dangerously close to the abyss:

  1. UD Levante (42 pts, 15th)
  2. CA Osasuna (42 pts, 16th)
  3. Elche CF (42 pts, 17th)
  4. FC Girona (40 pts, 18th)
  5. RCD Mallorca (39 pts, 19th)

The standout matchup of the relegation battle is without a doubt Girona vs. Elche at the Municipal de Montilivi. This is a direct "six-pointer." If Girona—who surprised everyone with their Champions League run last year but have struggled immensely this season—wins, they will leapfrog Elche to reach 43 points and guarantee their survival. If Elche secures even a single point, they will relegate Girona, provided Mallorca does not pull off a miracle.

RCD Mallorca, sitting on 39 points, has a golden opportunity as they host the already-relegated Real Oviedo at the Son Moix Stadium. Mallorca must win to have any hope of survival. If Mallorca wins and Levante, Osasuna, or Elche lose, a series of complex head-to-head tiebreakers will come into play.

The "Mini-League" Trap

Because La Liga uses head-to-head points rather than goal difference to break ties, a multi-team tie (where three or more teams finish on the same points) triggers the creation of a "mini-league" table. In this mini-league, only the matches played between the tied teams are counted.

For instance, if Mallorca wins, Levante loses, and Osasuna loses, we get a four-way tie at 42 points. Under the mini-league math, Mallorca actually has the worst record in games played between the four sides, meaning they would still be relegated even if they catch up on points! This level of nuance makes calculating live standings during La Liga Saturday an absolute nightmare for coaches and a thrill ride for neutral fans.


Full Matchday 38 Schedule & Broadcast Guide

To make sure you don't miss a single second of the action, here is the complete schedule for the final La Liga week of the season, complete with US and UK kick-off times and broadcast networks.

Matchup Date Kick-Off Time (ET / CET) US Broadcaster UK Broadcaster
Girona vs. Elche Saturday, May 23 3:00 PM ET / 9:00 PM CET ESPN+ Premier Sports 1
Valencia vs. Barcelona Saturday, May 23 3:00 PM ET / 9:00 PM CET ESPN+ LaLigaTV
Real Madrid vs. Athletic Club Saturday, May 23 3:00 PM ET / 9:00 PM CET ESPN+ Premier Sports 2
Real Betis vs. Levante Saturday, May 23 3:00 PM ET / 9:00 PM CET ESPN+ LaLigaTV
Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano Saturday, May 23 3:00 PM ET / 9:00 PM CET ESPN+ Premier Sports App
Getafe vs. Osasuna Saturday, May 23 3:00 PM ET / 9:00 PM CET ESPN+ LaLigaTV
Celta Vigo vs. Sevilla Saturday, May 23 3:00 PM ET / 9:00 PM CET ESPN+ Premier Sports App
Mallorca vs. Real Oviedo Saturday, May 23 3:00 PM ET / 9:00 PM CET ESPN+ LaLigaTV
Espanyol vs. Real Sociedad Saturday, May 23 3:00 PM ET / 9:00 PM CET ESPN+ Premier Sports App
Villarreal vs. Atlético Madrid Sunday, May 24 3:00 PM ET / 9:00 PM CET ESPN+, ESPN Deportes Premier Sports 1

Expert Match Predictions & Tactical Previews

Girona vs. Elche

  • The Stakes: Direct survival matchup. Girona must win; Elche needs a draw.
  • Tactical Preview: Girona has struggled defensively all season, failing to replicate the tactical high-pressing fluidity that characterized their historic 24/25 campaign. However, playing at home in front of a desperate Montilivi crowd will give them a massive emotional boost. Elche will set up in a low block, looking to frustrate Girona and hit them on the counter. Expect a high-tension affair where the first goal determines who stays in the top flight.
  • Prediction: Girona 1-0 Elche

Real Madrid vs. Athletic Club

  • The Stakes: Real Madrid's final home game; Athletic Club playing for mid-table placement.
  • Tactical Preview: Real Madrid's league title defense fell short this year, but they will want to give the Santiago Bernabéu faithful a spectacular send-off. Kylian Mbappé leads the Pichichi race with 24 goals and will be hungry to secure the top-scorer crown in style. Athletic Club has looked fatigued in recent weeks, taking only one point from their last three matches.
  • Prediction: Real Madrid 3-1 Athletic Club

Valencia vs. FC Barcelona

  • The Stakes: Valencia needs a win and massive help to reach Europe; Barcelona celebrating their title.
  • Tactical Preview: Hansi Flick may choose to rotate his squad to hand opportunities to La Masia graduates, but Barcelona’s bench depth remains formidable. Valencia will play with immense intensity, fueled by a packed Mestalla. However, Barca’s quick transitions and attacking quality under Flick should eventually overrun the hosts.
  • Prediction: Valencia 1-2 Barcelona

Villarreal vs. Atlético Madrid

  • The Stakes: The "Third-Place Play-off" on La Liga Sunday.
  • Tactical Preview: Diego Simeone's Atlético Madrid only needs a draw to secure third place, which plays perfectly into their tactical identity. They will happily cede possession to Villarreal and look to hit them with the clinical transition play of Antoine Griezmann and Julián Alvarez. Villarreal will dominate the ball but their shaky defense will likely cost them.
  • Prediction: Villarreal 1-2 Atlético Madrid

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

What are the tiebreaker rules in La Liga?

Unlike the English Premier League, which uses goal difference as the primary tiebreaker, La Liga uses head-to-head records. If two teams are tied on points at the end of the season, their head-to-head matches determine the higher rank. If three or more teams are tied, a "mini-league" table is created using only the results of the matches played between the tied teams.

Who has already qualified for the Champions League next season?

For the 2026/27 Champions League, Barcelona (as champions) and Real Madrid (as runners-up) are locked in. Villarreal and Atlético Madrid have also secured the remaining two Champions League qualification places, though their exact seeding and final ranking will be decided on Sunday.

Why is the Villarreal vs. Atlético Madrid match on Sunday, while the others are on Saturday?

To maintain competitive integrity, La Liga schedule-makers mandate that matches affecting the same outcomes (like the relegation battle or the Europa League spots) must kick off at the same time. Since Villarreal and Atlético Madrid are only competing against each other for third place, and their results do not impact relegation or other European spots, their match was isolated to headline Sunday night.

Who is the top scorer in La Liga this season?

Kylian Mbappé of Real Madrid leads the race for the Pichichi trophy with 24 goals heading into the final matchday of the 2025/26 season.


Conclusion: A Fitting Climax to an Incredible Season

As this thrilling La Liga week draws to a close, Spanish football fans are in for an absolute treat. From the tactical battlegrounds of the Mestalla and the Bernabéu to the high-stakes survival showdowns in Vitoria-Gasteiz and Girona, every single minute of La Liga this weekend promises high drama. Grab your snacks, set up your multi-screen viewing systems, and prepare for one of the most exciting final matchdays in recent football history.

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